In the media you will see and hear quoted the number 14,000 new homes per annum required for Auckland every year for the next 30 years.
The number "14,000" is a rounded statistical number derived from a population projection that assumes a high growth scenario will occur and be sustained at the high growth level until 2040. History tells us this is unlikely.
Where did this number come from?
The origin of the number is the 2010 Auckland Plan published by Auckland Council as a visionary precursor document to guide the preparation of the Unitary Plan. The Auckland Plan took the Statistics NZ Household Population projections based on the 2006 NZ Census. The 2006 Auckland population base of 1.303 million was projected forward to arrive at a starting population in June 2010 of 1.46 million for the Auckland Region.
Then three growth scenarios, low, medium and high were applied to the Auckland Region's 1.46 million population base as at June 2010. This 1.46 million population base was projected forward to give the anticipated population in 2040 for each scenario. The growth rates applied as follows;
Low Growth 0.9% per annum, 1.8 million in 2040
Medium Growth 1.2% per annum, 2.15 million in 2040
High Growth 2.1% per annum, 2.5 million in 2040
Auckland Council chose to plan for the High Growth Scenario to build capacity within its planning to enable it to respond to growth.
This High Growth Scenario gives an Auckland population of 2.5 million in 2040. That is a population increase of 1.04 million for the 30 year life of the plan from 2010 to 2040.
The population growth needs to be converted into the number of households or new homes required. We know from the 2006 NZ Census the average household occupancy is 2.9 people per household and this is expected to fall to 2.6 by 2040.
Therefore converting the High Growth Scenario population to households gives a demand in Auckland of 400,000 new households or new homes over the 30 year period. Dividing the 400,000 by the 30 years equates to an average of 13,333 new homes per annum. This has now been rounded up to the "14,000" new homes being built per annum.